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US National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasters accurately Hurricane Erick would in intensity as it hit Mexico’s Pacific coastline. Now, key tools that helped inform that outlook will go away by the end of this month, and it’s unclear if a replacement will be available as the Atlantic moves deeper into what’s expected to be an unusually active hurricane season.

The US Navy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will no longer accept and distribute readings from the long-running Defense Meteorological Satellite Program after June 30, according to a .

One of its top applications is helping forecasters accurately predict whether a storm is going to — that is, when top wind speeds increase at least 35 miles (56 kilometers) per hour over a 24-hour period. When weak storms suddenly strengthen, they can endanger coastal residents and add stress for emergency managers trying to allocate limited resources.

In recent years, many storms have undergone rapid intensification, notably last year’s Hurricane Milton. That storm spun up from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale in just over a day. While Milton weakened to a Category 3 storm as it made landfall last October, other storms have intensified right up until landfall. The includes last year’s deadly Hurricane John, which dropped nearly 57 inches (145 centimeters) of rain on parts of Mexico. Research tropical systems will be far more likely to become powerful hurricanes through rapid intensification as the world continues to warm.

The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program data — which has been to researchers and weather bureaus around the world — helps the NHC look inside storms while other satellites only look at “at cloud-top level,” said retired NOAA meteorologist Alan Gerard.

The defense satellite readings have helped forecasters detect storms undergoing eyewall replacement, a process similar to a snake shedding its skin. As it unfolds, storms may briefly while growing larger in size.

“That is an important process, to know that is happening,” Gerard said. “It stops the rapid intensification. It puts the brake on.”

After the eyewall replacement cycle, though, intensification can pick up again.

Equipment in the military satellite program — which its first satellite in 1962 — has been the end of its useful life. The Navy began operating a replacement weather satellite this year, but it’s not clear if federal forecasters have access to the data.

Military officials did not respond to a request for comment.

In a statement Friday, NOAA communications director Kim Doster said the military satellite data is just one piece of a “robust suite of hurricane forecasting and modeling tools.” Doster said storm models still include data from other satellite systems and from NOAA’s hurricane hunter aircraft, among other sources.

“NOAA’s data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve,” Doster said.

Nothing mentioned in the NOAA response can replace the sensors being taken away, said James Franklin, a forecaster who retired from the National Hurricane Center in 2017.

“When the data flow stops, the availability to see through clouds at the inner structure and organization of a tropical cyclone will be negatively affected,” he said. That will delay rapid intensification forecasts as meteorologists spend more time looking for other visual clues.

“It is going to be harder and it is going to take longer for the forecasts,” Franklin said.

Photo: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Center for Weather and Climate Prediction headquarters in College Park, Maryland. Photographer: Michael A. McCoy/Bloomberg

Topics Catastrophe Natural Disasters Hurricane